THE SITUATION ROOM       CNN

4:00 PM, 7:00 PM SEPTEMBER 18, 2006

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Pentagon war planning

WOLF BLITZER: President Bush says the military option is on the table if

Iran cannot be convinced to give up its nuclear ambitions through peaceful

diplomatic means. War with Iran may seem unthinkable right now, but over

at the Pentagon there are, in fact, people whose job it is to plan

precisely for the unthinkable.

Let's go to our senior Pentagon correspondent, Jamie McIntire -- Jamie.

JAMIE MCINTYRE, CNN SR. PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, Pentagon sources

tell CNN that all of the planning for possible military action in Iran

comes under the heading of "prudent and somewhat routine contingency

planning." But as you said, that doesn't mean they're not thinking about

it a lot.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) MCINTYRE: The objectives stop Iran from being able to

enrich enough uranium to make a nuclear bomb.

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Can you imagine a Middle

East with an Iran with a nuclear weapon threatening free nations?

MCINTYRE: The military option, preemptive air strikes by American stealth

bombers, strike aircraft and cruise missiles using the latest

bunker-busting munitions in an air assault lasting several nights and

dropping thousands of bombs.

GEN. JOHN ABIZAID, COMMANDER, U.S. CENTRAL COMMAND: I'm not going to

answer about confirming or denying any plans that we may have. I can tell

you we can deal with any problem that comes up militarily in the region.

MCINTYRE: The potential targets, more than two dozen nuclear facilities

spread across Iran. Some secret, some deep under ground, and some in

populated areas that would have to be hit multiple times.

COL. SAM GARDINER, U.S. AIR FORCE (RET.): Most people that have a sense of

the Iranian nuclear program say it has two parts: the part we see, and

that's the part we can target, and then there's probably a part we don't

see.

MCINTYRE: The best-case scenario is Iran simply rebuilds and military

action is needed in another two to five years. Worst case, Iran

retaliates, sponsors terrorism, attacks U.S.. troops in Iraq, disrupts oil

shipments through the Persian Gulf, pushing gas prices to record highs,

and enflames anti-American sentiment in the Muslim world.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We've seen in Iraq that a lot of things have happened

that we did not plan for. If a military operation is initiated against

Iran, we can be quite certain that the same thing will happen there, but

far, far worse. (END VIDEOTAPE)

MCINTYRE: You know, Wolf, it seems farfetched the U.S. would attack Iran,

but don't forget back in 1994 the U.S. drew up plans for a strike against

North Korea when it was developing nuclear weapons, even though it was

thought that could spark war on the Korean Peninsula -- Wolf.

BLITZER: I remember that time, Jamie. Thank you very much.

So how likely is a U.S. military strike against Iran? And would it lead to

all-out war?

Joining us now is retired U.S. Air Force Colonel Sam Gardiner. He's taught

strategy and military operations at the National War College, the Air War

College, and the Naval War College. Colonel, thanks very much for coming

in.

You've just prepared a paper for the Century Foundation entitled

"Considering the U.S. Military Option for Iran." You speak to a lot of

people, plugged in.

What is your bottom line? How close in your opinion is the U.S., the Bush

administration, to giving that go-ahead order?

SAM GARDINER: It's been given. In fact, we've probably been executing

military operations inside Iran for at least 18 months. The evidence is

overwhelming.

BLITZER: Wait. Let me press you on that.

GARDINER: Sure.

BLITZER: When you say it's been given, the president says he wants

diplomacy to work to convince the Iranian government to stop enriching

uranium, to not go forward.

GARDINER: Sure.

BLITZER: "I would tell the Iranian people that we have no desire for

conflict,: he told David Ignatius of "The Washington Post" the other day.

GARDINER: Sure.

BLITZER: So, what does that mean, the order has been given?

GARDINER: We are conducting military operations inside Iran right now. The

evidence is overwhelming from both the Iranians, Americans, and from

congressional (ph) sources.

BLITZER: What is military operations? Define that.

GARDINER: Sure. Sure.

They probably have had two objectives going back 18 months. The first was

to gather intelligence. Where is the Iranian nuclear program?

The second has been to prepare dissident groups for phase two, which will

be the strike, which will come as the next phase, I think.

BLITZER: Well, preparing intelligence, that's understandable...

GARDINER: Sure.

BLITZER: ... using all sorts of means. They want to know what the Iranians

are up to in terms of their nuclear -- nuclear program. But are you

suggesting that U.S. military forces, Special Operations Forces, or others

are on the ground right now in Iran?

GARDINER: Yes, sir. Certainly. Absolutely clear. The evidence is

overwhelming from lots of sources. And again, most of them you can read in

the public. Seymour Hersh has done good work on it, and there are lots of

other people who have done that.

I have talked to Iranians. I asked an Iranian ambassador to the IAEA,

"What's this I hear about Americans being there?" He said to me, "Well,

we've captured some people who worked with them. We've confirmed that

they're there."

BLITZER: Yes, but, you know, these guys, the Iranians, you can't

necessarily believe what they're saying..

GARDINER: Sure. Sure.

BLITZER: They could arrest some dissidents in Iran...

GARDINER: Sure. Sure.

BLITZER: ... and say these are American spies. They do that all the time.

GARDINER: Sure. The House Committee on Emerging Threats tried to have a

hearing some weeks ago in which they asked the Department of State and

Defense to come and answer this question because it's serious enough to be

answered without congressional approval, and they didn't come to the

hearing. There are sources that I have talked to on the Hill who believe

that that's true and it's being done without congressional oversight.

BLITZER: Look, I was once a Pentagon correspondent many years ago...

GARDINER: Sure.

BLITZER: ... and in those days and in these days, and as Jamie McIntire

just reported, and as you well know from your time in active duty at

Pentagon in the U.S. military, these guys are planning contingency

operations for almost everything. If Canada goes to war against the United

States, they've got a contingency plan.

GARDINER: OK. Different now. Two differences.

Number one, we have learned from "TIME" magazine today that some U.S.

naval forces had been alerted for deployment. That is a major step. That's

first.

The second thing is the sources suggest the plan is not in the Pentagon.

The plan has gone to the White House. That's not normal planning. When the

plan goes to the White House, that means we've gone to a different state.

BLITZER: You think it's possible there's a little psychological warfare

being played on Ahmadinejad right now to rattle him, to spread the word,

to put out this kind of information to get him nervous, perhaps a little

bit more agreeable to the diplomatic option?

GARDINER: It's possible. It's also possible that this path was selected a

long time ago.

You'll recall that even before Gulf Two, at a time when the president said

we have no plan, "I have no plan on my desk," in the summer of 2002 we

began bombing Iraq, Operation Southern Focus. Without congressional

approval, without the U.N. sanctions, we went ahead and began bombing...

BLITZER: Well, the argument at that time was if there were violations of

the no-fly zone, if U.S. warplanes were flying in the north and the south

and there were rockets or anti-aircraft fire going up, they could take

those out.

GARDINER: Yes, but it was a campaign to begin the war before the war

began. And, you know, I would suggest the evidence is there.

BLITZER: All right. So you see a similar pattern right now.

GARDINER: Exactly.

BLITZER: We're going to follow this closely.

Colonel Sam Gardiner, thanks very much.

GARDINER: My pleasure..

BLITZER: We'll look forward to reading your report that the Century

Foundation is putting out as well.